2:19pm

Tue February 8, 2011
It's All Politics

Obama's Re-Election? Voters Split On His Chances

In what is admittedly not the most useful polling result ever, CNN/Opinion Research reported Tuesday that about half a group it polled was split on whether President Obama would be re-elected.

According to the survey, 51 percent said Obama wouldn't be re-elected while 46 percent said he would. The survey's margin or error was plus or minus three percentage points.

The survey's usefulness is limited because one, it's only February 2011 and a lot can happen between now and November 2012. In January 2007, Hillary Clinton was polling at 34 percent in terms of likely support; Obama was at 18 percent and John Edwards was at 15 percent.

Two, who's the Republican nominee going to be? If it's Mitt Romney that's definitely a much different race than Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee.

The survey also found Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin essentially tied among Republicans in terms of who is the likely GOP nominee. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, was at 25 percent among Republicans while Palin, the former Alaskan governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee, was at 24 percent.

Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, came in at 13 percent.

But when asked who they supported for GOP nominee, the results were Huckabee, Palin and Romney, at 21 percent, 19 percent and 18 percent, respectively, suggestive of a three-way tie.

Meanwhile, 68 percent of Republicans said it's most important to them that the Republican nominee can beat Obama while 29 percent said it was most important that they agree with the candidate on all the issues. Copyright 2011 National Public Radio. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.