LOUISVILLE — On a recent spring day, Gerardo Serrano works with the thoroughbred racehorses at a barn at Churchill Downs, the famous racecourse that hosts the Kentucky Derby.
The 1,000-pound animals peep their heads from the white stalls, while others amble in circles inside the barn's wooden fence. Serrano pushes a large broom to clear the hay from the barn's opening.
Originally from Morelia, Michoacán, he came to the U.S. on a temporary visa about 12 years ago.
He is one of thousands of workers who used the temporary H-2B visa for nonagricultural seasonal labor to care for racehorses across the country. These visas are meant for temporary positions only — up to a year at a time. They're common in seasonal work in hospitality, landscaping — or working in the equine industry.
But Serrano ultimately managed, three years ago, to gain U.S. permanent residence, or a green card.
"Thanks to God, we went through the visa process, legally, and then we were able to go into the next process," Serrano tells NPR outside a stable, speaking of himself and his family. Thanks to his green card, his two children, ages 12 and 16, were able to come to the U.S. too within the last year.
A job in the horse-racing industry pays off in multiple ways. Workers like horse grooms get a cut of a winning horse's cash prize, which can top tens of thousands of dollars.
But there's another potential incentive: the chance at a permanent residence in the United States.
Thanks to a regulatory change that took effect just three days before President Trump's inauguration, more workers could soon be joining Serrano in seeking to turn temporary employment into something permanent.
That's particularly true in the horse-racing industry, where employers may be more willing to pony up thousands of dollars upfront for the right workers that would give them a competitive edge in the next race.
Easing the green card application
In the past, legal experts said applying for a green card while in the U.S. on a temporary visa would draw more scrutiny to applications from immigration officials. Temporary workers had to attest their intent to only be in the U.S. on a short-term basis. Still, having a green card application pending could not only jeopardize an H-2B worker's chances of visa renewal, but also increase the risk of the green card itself being denied.
But the new rule explicitly clarifies that such workers are eligible to apply for permanent residency in the U.S. without risking their visa status.
"Everyone is letting out a collective deep breath right now that the process got a little bit easier," said Keith Pabian, a lawyer who specializes in H-2B visas for the hospitality sector. He said most of his clients pursue the option.
"Everyone's feeling a lot more confident that the green card will go through without issue and that we're not having to fight so hard during the application process to keep people here on H-2B visas."
The Biden-era rule, which could take the Trump administration years to undo, leaves open one pathway to immigration for tens of thousands of workers on temporary visas even as the administration seeks to close down others, like certain asylum or parole programs.
Getting workers on a green card also provides employers with more certainty about keeping their most prized employees, amid uncertainty about lower caps and competition for H-2B visas in the future.
"They want to have something in place so that anytime they are out-competed for those visas, they have a fallback plan of having their workers obtain green cards," said Nataly Mualem, founding attorney of Mualem Law, which specializes in workforce visas.
Employers consider the process
Although data is hard to come by, industry experts believe that between 20% to 70% of the workforce on any race track is made up of H-2B visa workers.
It's not known how common industry-wide acquiring green cards is. It is up to the trainer to decide if they want to do it. But lawyers interviewed for this article say they've seen more interest from employers for sponsoring workers for green cards in recent months.
And there are barriers. Employers must shoulder an expensive upfront cost and workers could seek other work once it's done. It is also lengthy, taking up to five years.
But employers explore the option as an alternative to a work visa to have a workforce that can take on specialized responsibilities, or because they have made close personal connections.
"More commonly, the reason they want to do it is they've invested a lot of time in training those workers through the H-2B program," Mualem said, noting about a fifth of her clients explore the option. "By having them here permanently, they're able to do more tasks in the off-season, they're able to train others, they're able to take on more diverse tasks."
Lawyers say employers see a lot of uncertainty over the availability of foreign labor given changes under the Trump administration and increased immigration enforcement. So employers are trying to find other ways to add more stability to their workforce.
More employers, they said, are now inquiring about the green card application process. The new rule makes it easier to consult clients through the process.
"As there's immigration crackdowns, more employers will be joining the H-2B program because that's going to be their only alternative," Mualem said. Across many labor sectors, such as hospitality, the equine industry or others, portions of the workforce may lack legal status.
But the temporary work visa for non-agricultural labor has a 66,000 annual cap.
"It's going to become more competitive [to get visas] and that's pushing more employers to try [green cards] out," Mualem said. "And even though it's a long-term plan there are significant benefits to both the employer and employee."
Visa to green card pipeline helps trainers secure labor
Trainers see workers as a part of the competition. After all, the workers not only reap the benefits of a champion horse but are responsible for its well-being and competitive readiness.
These are roles that are considered specialized: not just anyone can walk into a barn and work with a thoroughbred. And trainers form close personal connections with their workers over the years.
"They're good people, man," said Dallas Stewart, a racehorse trainer at Churchill Downs. "They help us hold our game together, so they help us hold my whole business together."
Dallas has sponsored 10 visas for his workers, who come from Mexico and Peru.
"It costs a lot of money for visas so once you get on a green card, it works out in the long-run," said Ian Wilkes, another Churchill Downs-based trainer who has sponsored green cards and visas for his workforce, which is mostly from Guatemala and Mexico. He said his green cards each cost about $10,000.
H-2B visas require that the employer first try to seek a domestic worker to fill the role. Then employers have to cover the cost of applying for the visa, providing transportation, housing and healthcare.
"The whole whole issue is I don't have any Americans walking in the barn looking for a job at 4:30 in the morning," Wilkes said. "So without these visas, I wouldn't have any help."
And even with a pathway to permanent status, trainers said these workers are not replacing domestic jobs.
"Any of the trainers that are on the pipeline, the main goal is once they can secure a worker they would love to be able to get them to that point of having a green card," said Eric Hamelback, the CEO of the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association. "There is at least an understanding that this is not a workforce that can just be created if we don't have these programs in place."
Trainers fear changes to the programs
But visas don't guarantee labor. That 66,000-visa cap means the workforce is ultimately unreliable.
"It's cumbersome," Dale Romans, a trainer in Kentucky, said during a press conference in May focused on labor needs in the industry. "And it's hard to plan for the future because every year you're reapplying, every 10 months, you reapply for new visas and there's no guarantee that you're going to get them."
The ultimate goal is keeping the same workforce. Trainers told NPR that they see value in the same workers grooming, walking and training the same horses.
Employers are also concerned about increased workplace enforcement and lower caps in the future.
Herbert Cardona Marroquin came to the U.S. from Guatemala on the H-2B visa and has worked in Kentucky and Florida.
His trainer has advised him to carry paperwork and identification with him at all times in case he is approached by law enforcement.
"I love horses and now I have the opportunity to be here with a visa and I am very happy to be here working," Cardona Marroquin said. But he wants more stability and a permanent status.
"But hopefully one day I'll have the opportunity to get everything in order, which is what we all want, right?"
Employers do face the risk of workers leaving once they have a green card — unlike H-2 visas, workers with permanent residency aren't tied to a particular employer.
"That's the gamble of it," Wilkes, the trainer, said. "It's heartbreaking sometimes, but you've got to move on."
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