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KUNC is among the founding partners of the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration of public media stations that serve the Western states of Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.

Climate change and recent disasters are unlikely to swing many votes, researchers say

This is an image of the Davis Fire burning in a forest of tall pine trees. The sky is filled with black and gray smoke.
Courtesy Of Truckee Meadows Fire Protection District
The Davis Fire burning south of Reno sparked on Sept. 7, 2024, and destroyed 14 buildings within the first two days.

Climate change is causing wildfires in the West to get bigger, hurricanes in the South to get stronger, and temperatures to rise across the U.S. But when candidates talk about the issue on the campaign trail, does it sway voters?

That’s a question that Lawrence Hamilton, a researcher at the University of New Hampshire who studies public views of climate change, has studied for more than a decade.

For years, he said, climate change awareness was growing in the U.S. But that slowed after the pandemic as conspiracies about the government and science exploded.

Hamilton said the rise in misinformation is one reason extreme weather events fueled by climate change don’t swing many votes during election seasons. Recent examples include hurricanes Helene and Milton in the Southeast, and the Davis Fire in northern Nevada.

Another reason is “voting has become really tied to identity,” he said. “There's this connection between certain positions, such as rejecting science on climate change, and your personal, deep identity. And once that connection is made, it's really hard to uncouple.”

Hamilton said that’s especially true for people who are 30 and older, noting that survey data shows people are more willing to change their minds about issues in their 20s.

To that end, he added that younger generations are more likely to blame humans for climate change and be concerned about increasing climate disasters. In other words, in the future, the issue could have a bigger impact on elections across the Mountain West.

This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Kaleb is an award-winning journalist and KUNR’s Mountain West News Bureau reporter. His reporting covers issues related to the environment, wildlife and water in Nevada and the region.