Unlike Senate members and staff, House lawmakers and staff can still bet on prediction markets — where billions are bet each week on sports, culture, policy and elections. But a growing number of House lawmakers are calling for a rule change to bar the lower chamber from using prediction markets as reports of insider trading mount.
The push is in part a response to concerns that key decision makers and their staff can use insider information from their careers in government to bet in prediction markets and profit.
In April, prosecutors charged a U.S. soldier with using classified information to bet and win more than $400,000 on the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. In May, NPR reported that a political campaign staffer made "thousands" by betting on their own candidate using unreleased polling data.
"The status quo is indefensible," Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., told NPR. "There's no justification for allowing members of a campaign or members of the government to bet on their own decision making."
Last week, Torres introduced a bill banning campaign staffers from the betting on their own candidates using insider information. He also signed a bipartisan letter calling on House leadership to "end abuse in the use of prediction markets in our chamber immediately" by changing its rules.
Torres said he hasn't heard "anyone" argue against a House prediction market ban. The only thing keeping the lower chamber from changing its rules is what he called political "inertia."
As it stands, House members and staff can still bet on prediction markets. Moreover, House ethics rules make no mention of prediction market bets — known as event contracts — meaning there are no requirements for these potential profits to be reported in Congressional financial disclosure filings. Current ethics rules require members and staff to report profits from other assets, such as cryptocurrency, stocks and bonds.
Blake Chisam, a former chief counsel for the House Ethics Committee, has called this lack of guidance a "blind spot."
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees and regulates prediction markets. Insider trading is prohibited by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, but some lawmakers and former commission regulators fear the advent of prediction markets — like Kalshi and Polymarket — require new laws to prevent nefarious bets on politics, military action and policy.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, is also pushing for the House to change its rules. Earlier this month, she proposed a prediction market ban on House members and staff.
"Congress isn't a casino," Hinson, who is campaigning for Senate this year, wrote in a statement to NPR. "Members shouldn't be able to profit off prediction markets—or stock trades—with insider knowledge. That is wrong and maybe the swampiest thing I've ever heard."
The Senate recently issued a chamber-wide prohibition on staff and Senators buying event contracts. And across town, the White House sent an April memo warning staff and federal employees against using popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.
Despite calls for a new House rule and at least 10 proposed bills on insider trading on prediction markets, the lower chamber has not moved on a rule change.
On Friday, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters on Capitol Hill a House ban is "an idea we're talking about" and that he "would be in favor of it." But Johnson said it would take time to build "consensus."
Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is "supportive" of a House prediction market ban and "would urge Speaker Johnson to bring a measure to the floor swiftly that would ban Members of Congress from trading on prediction markets," Jeffries spokeswoman Christiana Stephenson told NPR in a statement.
Last week, the House Oversight Committee confirmed to NPR that it has "begun to review prediction market operations" after Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., told Fox Business he had started "requesting information" from these exchanges. During the interview, Comer threatened subpoenas if he didn't get the information he requested from prediction markets.
This patchwork of prediction market prohibitions come as cases of military and political insider trading mount.
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