This story was produced as part of the Colorado Capitol News Alliance. It first appeared at cpr.org.
As an unusually warm, dry winter in Colorado comes to a close, Governor Jared Polis activated the Colorado Drought Task Force on Tuesday, signaling that the state is edging ever closer to an official drought declaration.
Most of the state is in moderate to severe drought after months of record-breaking temperatures. That could have serious implications for agricultural and municipal water supplies this spring and summer.
The Colorado Drought Task Force brings together senior leadership across state agencies, from the Department of Agriculture to emergency management officials, to examine the local impacts of exceptionally warm, dry weather and come up with solutions.
“Colorado is experiencing the warmest year so far in our 131-year record, and one of the driest,” said Gov. Polis in a statement. “Activating the Drought Task Force will help ensure we are protecting one of our most precious resources by closely tracking impacts, supporting communities, and coordinating better as we prepare for the year ahead.”
The Drought Task Force will enable state officials to coordinate and assess how local communities are impacted by drought, according to Dan Gibbs, executive director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources.
“By coordinating across agencies and with local partners, we can more effectively elevate emerging impacts and ensure communities have the information and resources they need to respond,” Gibbs said.
Some municipalities are already planning water restrictions, including Thornton and Durango.
The Drought Task Force has not been activated since 2020, which was the last time Colorado entered the second most serious phase of drought response.
According to assistant state climatologist Peter Goble, the activation is triggered by a combination of drought indicators. That includes snowpack levels, which are currently at their lowest since 1981, soil moisture, which is also below normal across much of the state, and stream flows and reservoir storage.
Precipitation is also part of the calculation, along with the U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows moderate drought conditions across most of the state, with the high country around the Colorado River headwaters region in “exceptional drought.”
“Which means that we would only expect conditions to be this bad once every 10 years or even more rare than that,” Goble said.
Forecasters expect unusually warm, dry weather to stretch at least through June.
“The short term outlook is quite grim,” Goble said. “There’s no immediate relief on the horizon.”
If those trends persist, the Polis would have the option to declare the most severe drought response phase later this year, which would come with an official drought declaration and open the door to requesting assistance from the federal government.
An active monsoon season in the summer could head off that possibility, and it just might be in the cards, according to current seasonal forecast models. But Goble said he remains skeptical.
“It's too early to put a whole lot of weight behind that prediction,” Goble said. “Probably the most hopeful thing I can say is that the current conditions aren't a good predictor of future conditions.”
