Donald Trump often promised to get a deal to end the fighting in Ukraine in one day, but more than four months since his second-term inauguration that goal looks as far away as ever.
Russia proposed another attempt at peace negotiations with Ukraine on Monday in Istanbul, but both sides remain firmly entrenched in their positions on territorial disputes and sovereignty that have thus far made substantial progress unlikely.
Meanwhile, Trump, who has been eager to bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the table, has been showing signs of frustration over the process, suggesting that he is prepared to "just back away" and allow the fighting to continue if the two leaders can't make progress soon.
Seth Jones, president of the defense and security department of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), describes the U.S. role so far in the negotiations as "relatively weak" and cautions that if the administration were to walk away from the talks "it would fundamentally shift the balance of power in the war to the Russian side."
He adds that European nations could not easily or quickly replace the intelligence that the U.S. has provided.
But Samuel Charap, distinguished chair in Russia and Eurasia policy at the RAND research institute, says "If 'walking away' just means that the president is less engaged and leaves it more to working-level officials ... then that might not be such a calamity," but if it means cutting off military assistance and intelligence support to Kyiv, "that would be a problem."
According to a U.S. assessment released in April, an estimated 790,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine, while Zelenskyy has said more than a total of 400,000 Ukrainian forces been killed or injured since the start of the fighting.
Even so, "the Russian preference is for this to end on the battlefield with a Russian victory, rather than have to go to any kind of serious peace talks where they may actually have to give up some of their objectives," Jones says.
Even before the start of his second term, Trump's remarks on the campaign trail telegraphed a notable shift away from the Biden administration's nearly unqualified support for Ukraine. In an appearance on a podcast before the election, Trump suggested that Zelenskyy was to blame for the invasion.
"He should never have let that war start. The war's a loser," Trump said then, adding that President Joe Biden had "instigated that war."
Here is a look at how the Trump administration's efforts to bring about a peace have fared.
February
Weeks after his inauguration, Trump made separate calls to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He then announced plans for an in-person meeting with the Russian leader in Saudi Arabia.
"I think we're on the way to getting peace," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. "I think President Putin wants peace, and President Zelenskyy wants peace. I want peace. I just want to see people stop getting killed."
But days later, it wasn't Trump and Putin sitting down together — instead, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. In any case, the U.S. willingness for a high-level meeting with Kremlin officials that seemingly cut out Ukraine signaled a fundamental shift from the Biden administration policy.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also suggested that Kyiv would have to permanently cede some territory illegally seized by Russia, including Crimea, a Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. Since the start of the war, retaking Crimea has been a key strategic goal for Ukraine.
Initially, Zelenskyy rejected a White House proposal offering the U.S. access to Ukraine's critical mineral reserves as compensation for past military and financial support, as well as a means to secure future aid.
He later relented, traveling to Washington for a now-infamous meeting at the White House on Feb. 28 to finalize the deal. During an extraordinary Oval Office moment captured by media outlets, President Trump and Vice President Vance publicly scolded Zelenskyy, accusing him of lacking gratitude for American assistance.
As discussions turned to potential peace negotiations, Trump remarked, "You don't have the cards right now. With us, you start having the cards." Zelenskyy, remaining composed, replied: "I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious, Mr. President."
"I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations," Trump posted on his social media platform after the meeting. "I don't want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace."
March
Just days after Zelenskyy's meeting in the Oval Office, the White House announced it was suspending critical aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine — a decision that risked undermining Kyiv's position on the battlefield and potentially giving Russian forces a strategic advantage.
Ukraine announced it would accept a limited 30-day ceasefire, provided Russian forces reciprocated. While Putin rejected a broader truce, he did agree to an immediate halt to strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
During high-level talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with Ukrainian officials, the United States pledged to resume providing aid and intelligence to Kyiv. In a joint statement, both governments described the discussions as "important steps toward restoring durable peace for Ukraine."
At a subsequent meeting in Riyadh, between the U.S. and Russia, Moscow agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire aimed at ensuring safe navigation, prohibiting the use of force, and preventing commercial vessels from being used for military purposes. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the talks' limited scope meant "a great many different aspects [of a ceasefire] are still to be worked through."
RAND's Charap credits the Trump administration's efforts in securing the infrastructure and Black Sea ceasefires.
"A negotiation seems much more plausible now, even if it's going to be protracted and complex, than it was before [Trump] took office," he says. "The U.S. pressure on the parties to move towards negotiations has produced some results and it started a process."
April
On April 19, Russia announces a 30-hour Easter truce, which Ukraine accepts. A wary Zelenskyy says on the Telegram communication app: "If a full ceasefire truly takes hold, Ukraine proposes extending it beyond Easter Day on April 20."
However, both sides accuse each other of violating the truce.
Days later, the U.S. proposes a peace plan that would freeze the frontlines and recognize Russian control over territories already seized in Ukraine. Kyiv would forgo NATO membership — meeting a key Kremlin demand. Both sides reject the plan, with Sergey Ryabkov, a Putin foreign policy adviser, saying "we can't accept it all in its current form" and Zelenskyy insisting that Ukraine will never recognize Moscow's control over Crimea. "There's nothing to talk about here," Zelenskyy said.
Trump took to the Truth Social platform to fire back, criticizing Zelenskyy's "inflammatory statements" that would "prolong the 'killing field.'"
But Trump — who has frequently boasted about his friendship with Putin — also expressed exasperation with Russia's continued airstrikes on Kyiv. Posting on Truth Social, Trump wrote: "I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying," adding, "Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!"
May
In what could mark a pivotal moment in the negotiations, Russian and Ukrainian officials meet face-to-face in Istanbul on May 16 — their first direct talks since the invasion began. Facilitated by Turkey, the meeting resulted in a prisoner exchange, with over 1,000 detainees released by each side. However, beyond the swap, the discussions yielded little progress.
The Kremlin's planned talks in Istanbul on Monday are intended as a follow-up. However, despite this limited diplomatic progress, the fighting on the ground continues unabated.
On May 25, Russian forces launched a massive drone and missile strike on Ukraine — the largest attack of its kind since the war began.
Trump expressed dismay at Russia's actions, reiterating that he is "not happy" with Putin defying efforts to secure a ceasefire. Speaking to reporters about the attack, Trump said: "I don't know what the hell happened to Putin."
"I've known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he's sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don't like it at all," the president said. Asked if he'd consider further sanctions on Russia, he replied "absolutely."
Ahead of the proposed round two talks in Istanbul, which Ukraine said it was ready to attend, Zelenskyy also accused Russia of engaging in "yet another deception" by not handing over its proposed peace settlement ahead of the meeting.
Jones, of CSIS, says there are possible paths forward in negotiations, but they would require difficult concessions from Ukraine — concessions Zelenskyy has so far firmly rejected. According to Jones, Kyiv "could agree not to pursue NATO membership ... and not [to attempt] to reclaim territory currently held by Russian forces."
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