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A dry fall could mean fewer avalanches in Colorado this winter

The sun shines on a snow-covered mountain range. Shadows fall on the valley in the foreground.
Colorado Avalanche Information Center
A still from CAIC footage in the mountains. The agency predicts there could be fewer avalanches this winter because of a dry October.

Northern Colorado didn't see much precipitation this October and temperatures were warmer than usual. A lack of early-season snow isn’t great for the state’s water supply, but it can have a surprising benefit in the mountains in winter.

Brian Lazar with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center told KUNC dry conditions prior to winter are preferable to a thin snowpack.

“If you have a little bit of snow on the ground, and then it's exposed to these cold, dry conditions for a prolonged period of time, it makes that snow very weak, which acts as a very poor foundation for all the snow that's yet to come that will stack on top of it,” Lazar said.

Lazar said that the dry conditions back in the fall of 2016 reduced avalanche danger.

"We did see, in macro-conditions, generally more stable snow with less accidents that year.”

CAIC mountain b-roll

Lazar doesn’t expect avalanches to be a big concern until the end of the month. He told KUNC it does not take a lot of snow to start an avalanche.

"Seven inches of snow with a little drifting from wind - that's enough to start raising avalanche concerns," he said. "The first slopes that will be the most dangerous are those with very smooth ground cover."

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center offers both in-person and online safety training programs for free.

As a reporter and host for KUNC, I follow the local stories of the day while also guiding KUNC listeners through NPR's wider-scope coverage. It's an honor and a privilege to help our audience start their day informed and entertained.
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